The recent run of record-breaking warm temperatures here in Minnesota has spurred numerous casual conversations about climate change, including frequent half-serious exhortations of “welcome to the new normal!” While our short-term weather is not the same as the long-term climate, the past few years have certainly given us a hint of what the future may bring: warmer winters, wetter summers, more energetic storms, and more frequent record-breaking weather events of all kinds. While Minnesota has not yet turned into Kansas — and likely won’t for many decades — we’d be wise to consider how investing in climate resilience now will help us all be better prepared for the sorts of disruptions to historic weather patterns we can expect in the future.
Climate scientists are highly confident in two basic weather trends for Minnesota, projecting a future that is warmer — especially in winter — and wetter — especially in summer — than the past century. Average temperatures in our state have increased 3 degrees Fahrenheit since 1895, with most of the increase concentrated in the winter months. Spring precipitation is expected to increase 15-20% by midcentury. Indeed, all of the top 10 warmest and wettest weather years on record have occurred since 1998.
For nearly a decade now the US EPA has warned that Minnesota should expect the impacts of climate change to include increased flooding, reduced winter snow and ice, poor air quality in summers due to increased ozone and wildfire smoke, and a mixed bag of impacts on agriculture — both a longer growing season and more frequent droughts.
So how do we prepare for change?
Climate resilience encompasses a wide range of strategies and actions that vary depending on the scale and context of implementation. At the household level, it involves preparing for and adapting to more frequent and severe weather events, such as heavy summer rains and warmer winters. This could include measures like reinforcing homes, improving drainage systems, and stockpiling emergency supplies to mitigate the impacts of extreme weather conditions.
On a community level, climate resilience may entail retrofitting infrastructure such as bridges and roads to withstand greater extremes in precipitation and the consequences of repeated winter thaws. Communities might also invest in green infrastructure solutions like rain gardens and permeable pavement to manage stormwater runoff and reduce the risk of flooding.
At the state or regional level, climate resilience planning becomes even more complex, addressing a broader range of economic, environmental, and social impacts. This includes evaluating the potential changes in agricultural yields due to shifting climate patterns, mitigating habitat loss and biodiversity decline, and managing the spread of invasive species.
Furthermore, state-level planning must also account for the direct impacts of climate-related events such as floods, wildfires, and droughts on communities and infrastructure. This involves developing comprehensive emergency response plans, implementing land use policies that minimize exposure to natural hazards, and investing in infrastructure upgrades to enhance resilience.
While many of these measures are currently managed on an ad hoc basis, responding reactively to crises as they arise, there is a growing recognition of the importance of investing in proactive resilience-building strategies. By doing so, we can minimize the risks, costs, and disruptions anticipated over the long term as the climate continues to warm. Investing in climate resilience not only enhances our ability to adapt to a changing climate but also strengthens the overall resilience and sustainability of our communities and ecosystems.
The state of Minnesota has adopted a comprehensive definition of climate resilience, viewing it as the capacity of both communities and ecosystems to effectively cope with the impacts of climate change. This encompasses a broad spectrum of considerations, including social, economic, and physical factors that influence the resilience of communities and ecosystems.
It’s important to recognize that some level of resilience is inherently present in the systems upon which our communities were built. For example, infrastructure like roads and bridges, as well as businesses and homes, were designed and constructed based on historical climate data and assumptions about weather patterns. However, these design assumptions were largely informed by past climate conditions, and they may not adequately account for the increasing frequency and severity of extreme weather events associated with climate change.
For instance, roads and bridges were engineered to withstand expected levels of rainfall, but changing precipitation patterns may now exceed those design thresholds, leading to increased instances of flooding and infrastructure damage. Similarly, businesses may have been established with assumptions about seasonal weather patterns that are no longer reliable, impacting operations and profitability. Additionally, homes built in areas historically deemed safe from floods, fires, and storms may now face heightened risks as climate-related hazards intensify.
As a result, there is a pressing need to reassess and adapt our infrastructure, economic activities, and land use practices to enhance their resilience in the face of climate change. This involves updating design standards, incorporating climate projections into planning processes, and implementing measures to reduce vulnerability and enhance adaptive capacity across various sectors of society.
By proactively addressing these challenges and bolstering the resilience of communities and ecosystems, Minnesota can better navigate the impacts of climate change and ensure the long-term sustainability and well-being of its residents. This requires a coordinated and multi-faceted approach that integrates climate resilience considerations into policy, planning, and decision-making processes at all levels of governance.
The trajectory of climate change has reached a critical juncture, with climate scientists warning that we are already past the point of avoiding its impacts entirely. Moreover, many of the adverse effects of climate change are now inevitable, making it increasingly challenging to mitigate their full extent. As we transition into what is often referred to as the “new normal,” characterized by shifting climate patterns and intensifying environmental disruptions, the imperative for adaptation becomes paramount.
Successfully navigating this new reality requires a proactive approach centered around investing in resilience before it becomes too late. The concept of resilience, as articulated by the governor’s office, encompasses a comprehensive strategy aimed at preparing Minnesota’s communities, businesses, physical infrastructure, and natural environment to effectively mitigate, respond to, and recover from the impacts of climate change.
This multifaceted approach involves various components:
- Community Preparedness: Empowering communities to develop and implement strategies that enhance their ability to withstand and recover from climate-related hazards. This includes building community networks, developing early warning systems, and enhancing emergency response capabilities.
- Business Resilience: Supporting businesses in adopting climate-resilient practices and technologies to minimize disruptions to operations and supply chains. This may involve diversifying product lines, investing in renewable energy sources, and incorporating climate risk assessments into business planning.
- Infrastructure Adaptation: Retrofitting and upgrading critical infrastructure such as transportation networks, energy systems, and water management facilities to withstand the impacts of climate change. This includes improving drainage systems, reinforcing coastal defenses, and incorporating climate resilience considerations into infrastructure design and construction.
- Natural Environment Conservation: Protecting and restoring natural ecosystems such as wetlands, forests, and coastal habitats that provide valuable services like flood protection, carbon sequestration, and biodiversity conservation. This involves preserving natural buffers, enhancing ecosystem connectivity, and implementing sustainable land management practices.
By prioritizing investments in resilience across these key sectors, Minnesota can enhance its ability to cope with the challenges posed by climate change while also fostering long-term sustainability and prosperity. However, timely action is crucial to ensure that resilience measures are implemented proactively, effectively, and equitably, thereby safeguarding the well-being of current and future generations in the face of a changing climate.
Achieving climate resilience demands a collective effort and a fundamental shift in mindset at all levels of society. Collaboration is essential, not only among governments, businesses, and communities but also across sectors and disciplines. This collaborative approach is necessary to address the multifaceted challenges posed by climate change and to develop innovative solutions that build resilience effectively.
Central to this endeavor is the recognition that the future will not mirror the past. Climate change is fundamentally altering environmental conditions, weather patterns, and ecosystems, necessitating a departure from historical norms and expectations. Embracing this reality requires a willingness to adapt and innovate, as well as a readiness to invest in new approaches to infrastructure, ecosystems, and human systems.
Investing in climate resilience entails a holistic approach that goes beyond traditional infrastructure upgrades. It involves recognizing the intrinsic value of natural ecosystems as vital components of resilient landscapes, promoting ecosystem-based adaptation strategies that enhance natural defenses against climate-related hazards, such as flooding and erosion.
Furthermore, building climate resilience requires investing in people, empowering communities with the knowledge, resources, and capacity to adapt and thrive in a changing climate. This includes supporting education and awareness initiatives, fostering local innovation and entrepreneurship, and ensuring equitable access to resources and opportunities for vulnerable populations.
Adjusting our expectations and planning for disruptions are essential aspects of building climate resilience. This involves acknowledging that climate-related impacts will inevitably manifest in various forms, including extreme weather events, sea-level rise, and ecosystem shifts. By adopting a proactive and anticipatory approach to risk management, communities and institutions can better prepare for and respond to these disruptions, minimizing their adverse effects and enhancing overall resilience.
Ultimately, becoming climate resilient requires a paradigm shift—a recognition that the climate our grandparents experienced will no longer be the norm. Instead, we must adapt to a new reality and embrace the opportunities for innovation, collaboration, and sustainable development that arise in the face of a changing climate. By working together and investing in resilience-building measures, we can navigate the challenges of climate change and create a more sustainable and prosperous future for generations to come.
When Dorothy exclaimed “We’re not in Kansas anymore” she was reacting to a sudden, shocking change. Climate change is different—it will arrive more slowly, in fits and starts. But unlike Oz, is it real. Fortunately, reality is something we can prepare for.
